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Posts Tagged ‘Scott Boras’

Thoughts on Lowe-balling Derek

Posted by jmkraft on January 14, 2009

Well, it appears that the Mets will not acquire the services of Derek Lowe after all. We learned yesterday that he will be heading to Atlanta instead for a four-year, $60 million deal.

With few other good pitchers on the market, it was clear that Lowe would be getting a pretty good deal somewhere. But the Mets obviously considered the 35-year old overpriced, and he probably was. Four years for someone in the later stage of their career is a lot, and on one hand, I’m happy that the Mets were conservative on their offer instead of making a Castillo-esque mistake. 

But on the other hand, Lowe is a low-risk (how many times can I use this pun in this post?) player who will probably mature well. Lowe has no injury history, and sinkerball pitchers seem to mature better than fireballers (like Pedro Martinez, for instance). 

I really think the Mets were convinced that their low-ball offer would hold up until the Braves became involved. Once that happened, it was pretty clear that they had a dilemma on their hands. But with Omar preferring Oliver Perez to Lowe anyway, the last thing the Wilpons probably wanted  was to get into a bidding war with a team desperate for a front-end starter.

Now we have to assume that the Mets will get more aggressive about Perez. It’s far from a foregone conclusion that Perez returns, but I can’t see a scenario in which the Mets don’t sign him. The Mets are going to have to accept the fact that Perez will make more money than they want to pay him, because Scott Boras, Perez’s agent, knows that the team is backed into a corner now. Sure, Omar can go out and sign Randy Wolf, Jon Garland, or Pedro Martinez, but those are three much less desirable options. 

In Perez (assuming the signing actually does happen), the Mets move forward with a pitching enigma. Perez can be really, really good or really, really bad. All of the talk about his maturity improving because he got married is ridiculous, and I don’t really see how that’s going to affect him on the mound. There’s tremendous upside with Ollie, but how much longer can we talk about upside with a 27-year old pitcher? But the fact is that a four year deal for a pitcher of his stature, at his age, is not a bad deal. Physically, he is entering his prime. Mentally, well, who knows?

I’m not happy about missing out on Lowe, but Perez is really not a bad section option. Let’s just hope that the Mets don’t drop the ball on him too.

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